Ghana - A transition of Hope and Trepidation

          Paper on the 7 Dec. Elections in Ghana 

Introduction
Ghana has organised two general elections since the transition to multi-party elections in 1992.  However, a dilemma faces Ghanaians as they queue up at polling booths on 7 December to vote in presidential and legislative elections.  To the cynic, the previous elections were nothing more than ‘donor’ democracy – a veneer of legitimacy that allowed international corporations and financial institutions to continue doing business with an otherwise military-led dictatorship with a ‘clear’ conscience and without barracking from radical pressure groups.  Inside Ghana, pro-democracy forces saw them only as a transition within a transition, a constitutional own goal that would ease Flt. Lt. (Rtd.) Jerry John Rawlings out of power once his two-term limit came to an end, thereby ushering in the genuine transition.  That moment of truth has finally arrived.

 As Ghanaians take stock of Rawlings’s 21-year dominance of Ghanaian politics, it is necessary to look back at two preceding periods in Ghana’s History: the era of President Kwame Nkrumah and his Convention People’s Party (1951-1966); and the era of stagnation (1966-1981).  Analysis of the period between 1966 and 1981 will allow the reader to put President Rawlings’s achievements into perspective.  A brief sketch of the Nkrumah era is important for three reasons.  Firstly, since his coup d’état of December 1981 President Rawlings, depending on circumstances, has appropriated and at the same time deprecated the legacies of the Nkrumah.  Secondly, it allows a useful comparison of the two diametrically opposed developmental models – one based on state-driven internal capacity-building and resource mobilisation aimed at development, and the other based on the laissez-faire approach dictated by international financial institutions and targeted at growth.  Finally, no other leader has captured the imagination of Ghanaians and Africans the way the two leaders have done

  II. Background to Jerry Rawlings’s Rule

   The Nkrumah Era (1951-1966) 

   Ghana led the post-World War II struggle to rid Black Africa of the colonial yoke.  Two factors made this possible.  She attained self-government with British oversight in 1951, followed by formal independence in March 1957.  She thus became the first colony to pry open the floodgates to the independence wave that swept Black Africa in the 1960s, becoming in the process, a path-blazer and an example to other anti-colonial fighters.  And in her first president, Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, Ghana was blessed with a cerebral and radical leader.  His internal developmental project rapidly laid a robust foundation for economic take-off and social well-being for the dispossessed.  His mass education programme drastically cut down on illiteracy while the discriminatory educational policy in favour of the then backward parts of Ghana rapidly closed the development gap between the north and the south.  Perhaps this policy, more than any other, rooted out ethnic animosity from the Ghanaian society.  On the continent, his forward-looking Pan-Africanist agenda amplified the country’s world profile far beyond her size and resources. 

   By 1960, the first-past-the post Westminster-style electoral system that had been put in place by the departing colonial authorities had effectively reduced Ghana to a bi-partisan system of government.  The United Party – offshoot of the first political party in Ghana, the conservative United Gold Coast[1] Convention – constituted the main opposition to Nkrumah’s Convention People’s Party.  Swayed by the one-party temptation of independence leaders and given the perfect excuse by the UP’s disruptive and, at times violent opposition methods, Nkrumah turned the country into a Republic and a one-party state in 1960 through a referendum.  CPP was overthrown in a coup d’état in February 1966 by a conspiratorial alliance of conservative military officers and civilians, the consequences of a combination of factors. 

   Internally, the rapid economic development that saw Ghana’s per capita income compare favourably with countries such as South Korea, had begun to falter by 1965 on the back of a global recession and the incompetent, unaccountable and corrupt bureaucracy that the CPP party machine had become.  To his credit, Nkrumah took both administrative and disciplinary measures in an effort to stamp out corruption within the party.  However, his justifiable preoccupation with issues of African unity and integration divided his attention.  Besides, his efforts to develop young and competent cadres through a radical educational programme had not yet yielded any replacement capacity. The result was that CPP was unable to create the institutions and norms for democracy, development and the peaceful exercise and transfer of power. Leading members of the banned UP were meanwhile employing extra-parliamentary methods within and outside the country to cripple and undermine the government. The much-talked about Preventive Detention Act which allowed the regime to detain opponents without due legal process was, in part, a consequence of such opposition activity.  

   From the outside, Nkrumah was associated with the communist camp by the West because of his anti-imperialist stance and fight against neo-colonialism in Africa.  Thus, in addition to the effects of global recession on the economy, the US and UK blocked external financial assistance for the CPP’s industrialisation programme and artificially forced down the world market price for cocoa to further starve the country of resources.  Eventually, the CIA and British intelligence facilitated the CPP’s overthrow in 1966.  

   III.             The Wilderness Years - 1966 to 1981

  Between 1966 and 1981, Ghana experienced two brief spells of multi-party constitutional rule.  The conservative Progress Party led by Dr. Kofi Abrefa Busia ruled under the Westminster-style parliamentary democracy and lasted between September 1969 and January 1972, while the Dr. Hilla Limann-led neo-Nkrumahist People’s National Party presided over an American-style presidential system between September 1979 and December 1981.  Ghana spent the remaining years under military juntas.

  A major accusation against the Nkrumah regime was that Ghana was biting off more than she could chew by putting too much emphasis on the Pan-Africanist agenda, while not doing enough on the domestic front.  Consequently, the regimes after 1966 became more inward looking.  However, with the exception of a brief period (1972-1975) under the National Redemption Council junta, no meaningful programme of internal mobilisation of human and material resources was put in place.  The post-1966 politico-economic agenda was based on one strategy: rolling back Nkrumah’s state interventionist programme through liberalisation.  The IMF and World Bank dictated terms.  However, despite the promise of substantial foreign capital inflow (particularly between 1966 and 1971), the failure to satisfy donor conditionalities hampered the release of funds.  Besides, none of the subsequent regimes managed to put in place any meaningful macro-economic framework for economic reform that would spur industrialisation tied to and benefiting from Ghana’s rich agricultural and mineral endowment.

  Thus, Ghana has continued to rely on the much-maligned socioeconomic foundations laid by Kwame Nkrumah. The agricultural and mineral processing factories built by Nkrumah constituted Ghana’s main manufacturing base - the Ghana Industrial Holding Corporation; Tema, the port city created by Nkrumah remains the key powerhouse and window for Ghana’s foreign trade; the Akosombo Hydro-Electric project continues to soften the blows of the world energy crisis on Ghana.  Pretty little, in terms of input has been added to the educational and health delivery systems put in place before 1966.

  It is true that by leading the country into a one-party system of rule, Nkrumah’s CPP failed to lay the foundations for competitive and accountable governance.  By the same token, it was unable to put in place the necessary safeguards against bureaucratic excesses, impunity and corruption.  The paralysis that has afflicted the CPP after Nkrumah’s overthrow owed much to the fact that the party was outlawed for a long time; it is equally true to say that the indiscipline and impunity had reduced the party to a bureaucratic shell devoid of purpose and direction without the leadership and moral authority of Nkrumah.  However, none of the subsequent regimes could match the party’s socioeconomic achievements nor better its human rights record.  On the contrary Ghana, under the regimes that followed, abdicated her continental responsibility so coveted under Nkrumah, while sinking deeper into socioeconomic wilderness.

  Dr. Busia, who came to power promising unlimited human rights and democracy, soon abolished the Trades Union Congress and refused to recognise the ruling of the Supreme Court.  Unable to check the economic free fall that characterised Ghana, he found scapegoats in the productive migrant community who had hitherto buoyed the cocoa industry and retail trade.  In 1969 millions of Nigerians, Burkinabe, Togolese and other West African nationals were forcibly deported from the country under the draconian Aliens Compliance Order.

  By 1979, economic paralysis had become total.  Corruption had become endemic under the elaborate patronage system fostered by the military.  To prolong its stay and placate the angry workers, students and the civilian political elite, General Acheampong’s Supreme Military Council junta, which had seized power in 1972, floated the idea of non-party Union Government in 1978.  The fierce resistance to the unpopular concept from civil society provoked mass unrest and brought the country to the brink of a civil war.  Young and disaffected other ranks in the army stepped in on 4 June 1979 to diffuse the revolutionary situation. 

  IV.              The Rawlings Phenomenon in Ghana

  The junior officers created the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council under the dual leadership of Flt. Lt. Jerry J. Rawlings and Major K. Boakye Gyan.  In a dramatic three-month reign of terror, they set about cleaning the corrupt stables that Ghana had become with guns.  When they were done, eight army Generals, including three former Heads of State, had been executed, the Accra Makola Market, the main source of livelihood to the women, lay in ruins and several properties had been confiscated in the bid to recover stolen monies and back taxes.  Clearly unable to agree among them on the way forward, the AFRC leadership could not hang on to power for long.  In September, power was transferred to Dr. Hilla Limann and his People’s National Party following, arguably, the freest elections in Ghana’s history to date.

  The PNP could not have arrived on the political scene at a worse time.  Expectations were high.  The plank of moral and financial accountability for leaders had been set impossibly high by the events of June 4th. The economic situation had become even more dire after the excesses of the AFRC.  Nigeria had placed an oil embargo on the country and foreign donors had frozen assistance in protest at the abuses by the junta. Though these sanctions were lifted when Limann was elected President, their effects followed the PNP into its first two years in office.  To make matters worse, the new President wielded no control within his party.  He was weak as a leader and struggled to convince Ghanaians of his competence and authority.  By 1981, corruption was gradually creeping back and the students and workers were revving up for a new round of protests.  Flt. Lt. Rawlings seized the opportunity, overthrowing the constitutional order on 31 December 1981.  This time, his Provisional National Defence Council had come to stay.  Since 1981, Flt. Lt. Rawlings has led Ghana on a roller-coaster that is as rich and contradictory in political and economic experimentation as it is controversial in terms of its record on human rights and the rule of law.  In this lies the significance of the 7 December 2000 general elections.

   V.                 THE LEGACY

   A.     Economic Reform 

   Arguably, it is in the field of economic reform that Ghana has seen the most remarkable transformation under the PNDC and its successor party, the National Democratic Congress.  At the time the PNDC seized power, Ghana was in a state of paralysis.  ‘Available disposable resources for imports were US$330 million as against short term debts of US$348 million’[2].  The cocoa, gold and diamond industries, the mainstay of Ghana’s economy, had collapsed.  The high rate of the local currency, the Cedi (C2.75 to the dollar at the time) had led to a booming illegal trade in currencies, inflation was galloping and social services had ground to a halt.  To make matters worse, Ghana was hit by the worst drought in living memory at a time when Nigeria had expelled hundreds of thousands of Ghanaian immigrants.

   Judged against this background, Ghana has made giant strides in boosting production and creating favourable conditions for foreign and local investment under the Economic Recovery Programmes (ERP) started in 1983.  Since then, Ghana has managed to stabilise the economy through IMF/World Bank economic liberalisation policies.  

   Privatisation 

   The cornerstone of the ERP has been the massive privatisation of state industries.  The mineral sector, particularly the gold and diamonds industries were privatised and tax incentives introduced to boost production.  Similar measures were employed in the food processing and telecommunications industries.

  Agriculture

  On the one hand, the PNDC encouraged increased production of cash crops such as the country’s economic mainstay, cocoa, by introducing cash incentives to farmers.  On the other hand, attempts were made to diversify the agricultural base into such non-traditional sectors as pineapple and cashew nut production.

  Financial policies

  Foreign currency speculation constituted a major problem in the Ghanaian economy, given the unrealistic value of the Cedi against major foreign currencies.  By introducing deregulation and instilling discipline in money supply, the parallel currency market began to shrink while inflation was brought down from three digit figures to an average of 12-14% in the 1990s.  Foreign investors began to show interest, at least in the banking, telecommunication, tourist and extraction sectors.  The establishment of the stock exchange also gave a boost to the economy.

   Consequences 

   The Positives 

   The results of the Government’s economic reforms have been mixed.  From the mid 1980s through the 1990s Ghana enjoyed the confidence of the donor community and attracted foreign investors, particularly from South-East Asia.  Perhaps the dividend from the economic policies is more visible in the restoration and development of social and economic infrastructure.  The major cities have witnessed the revamp of the telecommunication system & resurfacing of roads.  Trunk and feeder roads have been constructed or restored to facilitate communication between the rural and urban centres.  The rural areas have benefited immensely from the extension of electricity from central grids and the supply of drinkable water and primary health care.

   In the last few years, Ghana has witnessed a quantitative change in educational facilities under the reform programme.  From three, the number of universities has shot up to eight, including three private universities.  This has boosted university intake from around 10 000 to 36 000.  At the lower levels, the break-up of pre-university education into Junior and senior Secondary Schools and the drastic reduction in the duration of pre-university studies have led to an expansion in the intake of pupils.  The downside is that, the quality of education has greatly suffered due to insufficient school materials and shortages of qualified teachers.  The result has been the alarming decline in educational standards.  Children of Government functionaries and the elite are abandoning these schools for private schools at home and abroad.

   The relative tranquillity in Ghana has made her tourist-friendly and has attracted, on average, over 300,000 foreign visitors annually since 1996.

   Throughout the 1990s Ghana enjoyed a steady real GDP growth of between 4 and 5 percent while inflation steadily dropped from around 116% in 1981 to around 13% in 1998.  More importantly, gold has outstripped cocoa as the mainstay of Ghana’s foreign trade, recording an export value of US$682 million in 1999 as against US$621 million from cocoa.

   The Negatives 

   As in all IMF-imposed programmes driven by liberalisation, ERP has left in its trail, structural imbalances in the economy and crippling social problems for the vulnerable.  The much talked about diversification of the agricultural base did not emphasise production for consumption but for export.  As a consequence Ghana, which has enough rice-sustainable land not only to feed herself but to satisfy regional demand in West Africa, has become an importer of rice.  There is disincentive due to a lack of effective government interest in food production.  Indeed, any significantly adverse weather could plunge the country into famine.  Meanwhile the pineapples and nuts that she produces have faced even stiffer competition and barriers in the international market than cocoa.

   The industrial base remains precariously weak, accounting for under 15% of GDP, with manufacturing taking only 8%.  The weakness of the economy puts it at the mercy of international financial hiccups, particularly as they affect the externally-dictated commodity prices.  Ghana’s imports have consistently outstripped exports throughout the 1990s by almost 2 to 1.  This means, in part, that Ghana has spent the ERP years servicing huge loans that have done little to lay a sound foundation for economic take-off.  When the PNDC seized power in 1981 Ghana’s external debts stood at just over a billion US dollars.  As President Rawlings prepares to step down, he leaves Ghana with over US$7 billion debt and a Cedi that is in free fall.  In December last year a dollar fetched just over C3500; by November this year it had shot to C10000.

   The privatisation programme also spewed a patrimonial system based on cronyism and institutional graft.  The parastatals and government bodies that were staffed by PNDC/NDC  stalwarts and that were charged with economic development, either misused funds or diverted resources.  Dr. Kwesi Botchway, the former Finance Minister and architect of ERP, resigned in disgust, accusing Mr. Tsatsu Tsikata, head of the Ghana National Petroleum Commission and close ally of Rawlings of embezzling government funds.  The National Economic Planning Commission has also been accused of embezzlement and incompetence.  Meanwhile, party strongmen made use of their closeness to power to buy off state enterprises on the cheap or received huge soft loans to set up businesses.  CASHPRO, the biggest cocoa-buying company and one of the largest to be listed on the stock exchange is headed by Mr. Kwamena Awhoi, a party veteran.

   Social Depression 

   The emphasis on subsidy removal from state institutions has largely turned hospitals and educational institutions into cash-and-carry establishments even as chronic unemployment and casualisation characterise the labour market.

   B.     Political Reform

   The Provisional National Defence Council was created ostensibly to lead Ghana in making ‘nothing short of a revolution’.  From the onset, People’s and Workers’ Defence Committees were set up as the basic units of administration in the communities and at the factory floors.  Similar structures sprang up in the Army and Police.  Special Tribunals that meted out almost instant justice to ‘saboteurs’ and criminals supplanted the justice system.  With time, the regime set up District Assemblies as the bedrock of local government with the intention that a vertical system of government from the local to the national level would evolve, presumably under a non-party framework. 

   The internal and external pressures for political liberalisation beginning in the late 1980s put paid to this design.  To derive maximum benefits from an imposed agenda, the PNDC accommodated the political structures it had nurtured into a new Constitution that was adopted in 1990 for multi-party democracy.  Thus, the District Assemblies were incorporated into the Constitution but remained largely under the control of the PNDC.  The PNDC itself was transformed into a political party – The National Democratic Convention.  To enable it to readjust from its command-administrative style of governance to the demands of persuasive politics, the NDC was obliged to open its doors to influential political forces hitherto outside the regime.  To accommodate the newcomers, long-serving political cadres who supported the PNDC through thick and thin were relocated to the District Assemblies and the several independent Commissions set up under the new constitution.

   The PNDC’s modus operandi has been based on the eclectic fusion of elements of the CPP’s grassroots mobilisation and pro-rural development agenda on the one hand, and the free marketeering policies of the UP tradition.  What remains uniquely PNDC’s is the lack of hesitation in using violence to achieve its goals.  Peaceful demonstrators have been shot dead by pro-regime thugs even in the era of transition while Government ministers attack opponents with weapons.  It is no surprise that several Nkrumahist, and UP politicians easily explain away why they have joined the PNDC/NDC.  The strategy was aimed at carving out the centrist ground of Ghanaian political traditions and creating a giant non-party structure supported by an imposing security apparatus.  The enforced return to constitutional rule altered this scenario, but the strategy has turned the NDC into the most dominant political force in Ghana today.  It is doubtful, however, that the party can maintain its fortunes for long after the exit of President Rawlings. 

   Thus, by the time Ghanaians went to the polls in November 1992 the political turf, in terms of material and human resources, had been carefully re-laid in favour of the PNDC. 

   The Security Situation  

 Of all the accomplishments that the PNDC/NDC ascribes to its tenure of office, the economy and stability vie for pride of place.  By and large Ghana has avoided the debilitating wars that have afflicted her neighbours to the West.  Since 1981, Ghana has faced two main threats of conflict.  The first was the result mainly of intra-PNDC struggles for power between 1982 and 1984 and the elimination of perceived ‘enemies of the revolution’.  The second was a localised war in the Northern Region (1994-1995) between the Nanumba and Konkomba that claimed at least 3000 lives.  According to the regime’s own admission, 107 people were executed for various offences between 1983 and 1989[3].  The actual figure could be anywhere between 1000 and 2000.   

   These figures put Ghana’s ‘stability’ over the last 21 years in perspective.  By any stretch of the imagination, the PNDC has been the most brutal regime in Ghana’s History.  No other regime comes remotely close to it in terms of human rights abuses or sheer impunity.  It is therefore fair to say that Ghana’s stability has been achieved at an intolerable price and has been guaranteed more by the repressive state machine than any societal consensus derived from the assurance of basic human needs and rights.  Whenever discussions turn to impunity in Ghana under the PNDC, attention is usually focused on the murder of high profile figures, such as the abduction and murder of the three high flying High Court judges in 1983.  However, several hundred military and police personnel, workers’ leaders, political activists and journalists lost their lives through summary execution and disappearances in the heady days of 1982-1985.[4]   

   The instruments of oppression under the PNDC were many and varied.  They included the notorious Bureau of National Investigation (BNI), the Special Reserve Battalion (an army within the army, answerable only to the President and made up of Cuban-trained commandos), the Special Tribunals and several other paramilitary groups.  Between them, they have carried out or supervised murder, disappearances, torture and harassment.  By and large, these structures have remained intact even after the transition to multi-party democracy in 1992.  They have been accommodated in the new Constitution but, under the new democratic dispensation, they have increasingly come under greater scrutiny by civil society. 

   A spin-off from the gun culture that characterised the early years of the PNDC, as well as from the Nanumba-Konkomba conflict, is that thousands of AK-47 assault rifles and other small arms have diffused into society.  Several remain buried in caches and homes and constitute a security threat to the country. 

  The desire by sections of the society to seek retribution for gross human rights abuses, the debate about the future role of these structures and, more importantly, how to ensure continued stability without such overtly repressive structures, have become central to the discourse on the future direction of post-Rawlings Ghana.  Important, to this end, will be the fate of the indemnity clauses that the PNDC inserted into the new Constitution to safeguard individuals associated with impunity from prosecution. 

   Ghana and West Africa

   Foreign policy has been positive and forward-looking under the PNDC.  Between 1966 and 1981, Ghana experienced a major paradigm shift away from the pro-active, hands-on approach of ex-President Kwame Nkrumah and his CPP to continental and world issues, towards a more inward-looking attitude.  Since 1982, however, Ghana has gone into overdrive in seeking solutions to conflicts in the West African sub-region, particularly in Liberia and Sierra Leone.  She has been a major net-intaker of refugees from the conflict zones and, alongside Nigeria, has led from the front in the search for peace.  Ghanaian peacekeepers have become a common feature in the world’s hot stops – in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Lebanon and Cambodia.  Ghana has likewise become a key player in the processes of economic integration within the Economic Community of West African States.  She has, however, not had the best of relations with her immediate neighbours.  Though tensions have abated considerably in the last few years, Jerry Rawlings’ tenure of office was marked by a love and hate relationship with Togo in particular, and also Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire.  Throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, mutual accusations of destabilisation marred relations between Ghana and her three neighbours.  Ghanaian opponents of Rawlings received sanctuary in Lomé and Abidjan.  The Togolese dictator, President Gnasingbé Eyadéma often accused the Ghanaian regime of supporting armed incursions by Ghana-based Togolese dissidents, who were of the same Ewe ethnic extraction as President Rawlings.   

   Civil Society

   The Student Movement: 

   Arguably, the student movement has been the ultimate catalyst of all major political changes in post-independent Ghana.  The National Union of Ghana Students invariably sparked protests against incompetent, corrupt or repressive administrations in the past, before even the labour movement.  The Union initially provided President Rawlings with the base to launch his political career by its unflinching support to him during the AFRC era (June-September 1979) and in the run-up to the coup of 1981.  Since 1982, however, its capacity as chief watchdog has been greatly weakened by the PNDC and it is still struggling to recover. 

   Aware of the threat posed by the students, the PNDC applied a combination of measures to blunt its cutting edge. First, former high profile student leaders, such as Annor Kumi, Yaw Donkor and Kofi Totobi-Quatchie were drafted into the security machine of the PNDC.  By using student agents provocateurs within the student movement to disrupt strategy and by mobilising the unemployed and lumpen elements to confront student demonstrations, the movement was left prostate. Second, the introduction of ERP hit the students hard.  By removing subsidies from tertiary education and introducing school fees students were forced, under pressure from parents, to downgrade activism and concentrate on finishing their education as early as possible.  The drastic reduction in the duration of pre-university education under the ERP-dictated educational restructuring process, also opened the doors to students who were too young and uncommitted to engage in activism. 

   The labour movement also suffered similar infiltration and disruption from within and without.  Independent-minded leaders were forced out of office, undermined or forced to flee the country, while individuals who were loyal to the regime forced their way into leadership; the Workers Defence Committees, appendages to the regime, effectively supplanted the unions at the factory floors. 

   QUANGOs 

   In the interim, quasi-government organisations filled the civil society vacuum.  The People’s and Workers’ defence Committees, the Mobisquads of the National Mobilisation Programme, the pro-PNDC June 4 Movement and the 31st December Women’s Organisation played the double role of government support planks and civil society activists. 

   Non Governmental Organisations 

 This state of affairs did not, however, hamper the development of alternative sites of contestation in civil society organisations.  Since the mid-eighties, a general consensus has emerged within the international community to adopt a pragmatic attitude in support of democratisation in the Third World.  On the one hand, funding agencies have encouraged or pressured autocratic regimes to loosen their grip on the State.  On the other, they have financially supported capacity-building within civil society to enable NGOs to force open democratic space.  As a consequence, an impressive number of relatively independent NGOs and media emerged.  Among these were groups like the Institute of Economic Affairs, ISODEC and its organ, Public Agenda, and the Ghana Committee on Human and People’s Rights.  This yielded a two-fold dividend.  Firstly, independent-minded pro-democracy and human rights activists who would otherwise have either been forced to leave the country or to remain silent to avoid being thrown out of the patrimonial economic system, were able to fend for themselves and speak their mind.  Secondly, these organisations and individual activists constituted themselves into watch-dogs over the Constitution, taking the Government to task over non-compliance, and holding the security agencies responsible for violations of human rights.

  The result has been impressive.  The Commission for Human Rights and Administrative Justice and the Media Commission, among others, have made giant strides in the attempts to assert their professionalism and independence as envisaged under the Constitution.  CHRAJ has chalked-up landmark victories over the Government while the Media Commission is strengthening its oversight role of the media, including the state media.  With the proliferation of frequency modulation stations and a vibrant private press, Ghana has seen the evolution and modest consolidation of democracy-supporting institutions.

  It is a measure of the increasing maturity of Ghana’s civil society that, once it had discovered that open and violent confrontation would only play into the hands of the security-conscious regime, it switched to the tactics of nudging President Rawlings towards the exit door, using constitutional leverages.  So far, this tactic has worked to near perfection: the rule of law is gradually taking hold and President Rawlings is reluctantly quitting his post under the terms of the Constitution he masterminded.

  Problems, however, persist.  Civil society institutions remain structurally, professionally and financially weak while much of the private press is yet to rise above partisanship.  This is to be expected, given the long years of dictatorship.

  Summing up the Rawlings Effect

  In summing up the Rawlings phenomenon in Ghanaian politics, it would not be an overstatement to conclude that not since the rule of President Kwame Nkrumah had an individual come to symbolise the fears and aspirations of the nation as the outgoing President.  A generation of Ghanaians associates politics in Ghana only with his reign and his formal departure from the political scene marks the end of an era.  He came in as a coup plotter; he wants to exit as a democratically elected president and statesman at the end of his term of office.  He seized power as a firebrand angry at the neo-colonial order in Ghana and calling for ‘nothing short of a revolution’ to transform the system; he departs as the most tamed IMF/World Bank disciple in Ghana’s history.  He descended on the Ghanaian scene promising to instil probity and accountability into the moral fabric of society; many may argue that patrimonialism and institutional graft have scaled new heights as he ends his reign.  As he steps down after the coming elections, public opinion on his era is divided down the middle as to the legacy he leaves behind.  Some see him as a charismatic Messiah who pulled Ghana away from the brink of collapse.  Others cannot wait to see the back of him, accusing him of being a Right Bonapartist who, for 21 years, took the country for a ride, leaving it not any better than he found it.

  VI.              The December 2000 Elections

  Ghana has held two multi-party elections, both of which predictably returned the NDC to power, since 1992.  The 7 December 2000 presidential and legislative elections have taken on a new meaning because of the mandatory exit of Jerry Rawlings from office. As the electorate take to the polls on December 7 without the incumbent the focus of the campaigns has shifted, on the one hand, from personalities to two issues: Change for the opposition, Continuity for the NDC; on the other hand, heated debates among the candidates have centred on the economy and corruption, human rights and ethnicity.

  Ethnicity: The Politics of Mensahs and Mahamas

  With the exception of the inter-ethnic violence (particularly in the Asantelands) in the run up to independence and the secessionist movement in the Ewe-dominated Volta Region in the 1970s, Ghana has been a model of ethnic harmony.  Arguably, she remains one of the very few oases of calm on the African continent as far as ethnicity is concerned.  Credit for this goes largely to the inclusive policies adopted by Kwame Nkrumah and the CPP (See Section on Nkrumah’s rule above).  Indeed, since independence, the election of leaders into high office has been based on the popularity and strength of their parties rather than their ethnic origin.  Thus, Kwame Nkrumah (Ethnicity: Nzema; 1951-1966), Kofi Abrefa Busia (Ethnicity: Brong; 1969-1972), Hilla Limann (Ethnicity: Dagarti/Wala; 1979-1981) all came from minority ethnic groups.

  For reasons related to the ethnic composition of the central core of the PNDC, however, many in Ghana perceive the party as an Ewe party.  The PNDC has often played on this perception to establish a stranglehold in the Volta Region, but has done precious little to improve conditions there even as it has exposed the Ewe to possible future political backlashes. The Volta Region remains one of the most underdeveloped in the country even though President Rawlings consistently received over 90% of the Ewe popular vote in the last two elections.  All the indications are that the NDC can no longer take the votes of the Volta Region for granted as the electorate seem to have taken stock of their predicament.  Indeed Victor Gbeho, the current Foreign Minister, has opted to stand as an independent parliamentary candidate in the region rather than risk the ignominy of losing on an NDC ticket.

  Despite the ethnic reality in Ghana, however, all the parties have gone to lengths to push the ethnic question on the political agenda.  All the major parties have made conscious efforts to ethnically balance their presidential teams, putting ethnicity above substance in an effort to demonstrate their broad-based and inclusive nature.  By choosing a northern ‘Mahama’ as vice-presidential candidate to team up with a southern ‘Mensah’ and vice versa, all that the parties have succeeded in doing is to force the ethnic question into the psyche of the population even as the parties cancel each other out in terms of the possible advantages of such policy.

  The Pretenders to the Throne

  The National Democratic Congress

  The NDC enters the campaign with all the advantages of incumbency in the Third World.  Its flag bearer is Professor John Atta Mills, a technocrat who lectured at the university and a relative newcomer to the PNDC/NDC fold.  His emergence as presidential candidate was not without its controversies.  Since the 1996 elections, the hierarchy of the NDC has factionalised into ethnic groups with powerful power brokers at the helm.  Prof. Mills was accused of being a mere front man of the powerful Fante oligarchy that had coalesced around Kwamena Awhoi of CASHPRO and Kofi Totobi-Quakyie, the current head of national security.  Disappointment at being passed over and anger at the increasing influence of newcomers to the bandwagon, influenced the decision by a group of radicals led by Augustus Tanoh and Kofi Kpordugbe to break away and form the neo-NDC Reform Party.  Observers point to the fact that, as Vice President of Ghana after 1996, he chaired the Government’s economic policy unit that saw the rapid downturn in economic performance and the collapse of the Cedi.  On the eve of the elections, Prof. Mills finds himself afflicted by the ‘Al Gore’ Syndrome.  He is struggling to convince the electorate that he is his own man; while he preaches PNDC/NDC continuity in the relative success of the Government’s economic programme, he is at pains to distance himself from the distasteful human rights record of the PNDC. 

  To be on the safe side, Prof. Mills would have to aim at an outright victory in the first round of the elections, a daunting proposition given the closeness of the contest between him and Mr. John Kufuor of the New Patriotic Party.  If the opposition manages to force a second round ballot, all indications are that he is more likely to lose.

  The Opposition

  Of all the general elections that have taken place in Ghana since 1992, December 7 offers by far the best opportunity for the opposition to end the PNDC/NDC dominance in Ghanaian politics.  Not only does the absence of the imposing figure of Rawlings and the economic downturn play to their collective advantage, but also they are better prepared organisationally now than in the last two elections.  The three most dominant opposition parties are the New Patriotic party led by J.A. Kufuor, the Convention Peoples’s Party led by Prof. George Hagan (representing the Nkrumah/Danquah traditions) and the Reform Party led by Augustus Tanoh.  The NPP and CPP are still struggling to overcome their long stay in the political wilderness.  A generation struggle is on going within them between the Old Guard still clinging to the leadership and the young and radical activists pushing up the ranks.  The RP is a break away rebel group from the NDC.  It is hampered by its lack of tradition and the weight of past PNDC excesses.

  The New Patriotic Party

  For obvious reasons, John A. Kufuor of the New Patriotic Party offers the greatest challenge to Atta Mills.  The NPP is the most financially sound and organizationally prepared among the opposition parties.  Beyond that, it provides a more clear-cut alternative to the ruling party than any other opposition party.  The NDC is pursuing an economic policy traditionally associated with the NPP and, perhaps, doing a better job of it.  With no party vigorously challenging the general direction of this policy, human rights and the rule of law become the key areas of policy differences.  In theory at least, this is the forte of the Danquah tradition.  While the NDC stresses the primacy of food, shelter, clothing and stability as the cornerstone of its human rights policy in its Manifesto, in the NPP Manifesto, the emphasis is placed on ‘the enjoyment of human rights to their full and respect for the rule of law’.  The confrontation between social justice and fundamental human rights will play to the advantage of the latter, given the abysmal human rights record of the P/ NDC.

  So convinced is the NPP of the fact that it won the 1996 elections that, this time round, it is leaving no stone unturned in a bid to ensure a transparent ballot.  It has ensured that its observers are present at every polling station and has led the opposition drive to get the electoral register pruned of the 1.5 million names that the Electoral Commission has confessed to.  As a back up, and dangerously so, the NPP is reported to have armed its supporters in its strongholds of Ashanti and Brong Ahafo for any eventuality.  Though a bit colourless, John Kufuor is a tested politician and aggressive campaigner; he is sure to give John Mills a real run for his money.

  On the right of the political spectrum, there remain fears within the party that the United Ghana Movement led by Charles Wereko-Brobby might pick damaging votes off the NPP in Ashanti and Eastern Regions.

  The Convention People’s Party

  The Convention People’s Party has come a long way since the 1996 elections, with young and enterprising politicians at the heart of its rebuilding exercise.  The feeling is that, the 7 December elections are coming too soon for it to make a significant impact.  It is handicapped in a number of ways.  Firstly, the NDC’s internal security arrangements are an extreme version, and its social policies a bastardisation, of Nkrumah’s policies.  Secondly, the grassroots support base of the NDC – radical workers’/students’ leaders, the workers and the rural dwellers – constitutes the traditional core support of CPP.  Finally, the CPP was the hardest hit of the opposition parties by the deliberate policy of proliferating and dividing parties that was orchestrated by key figures within the NDC with traditional affiliations to the CPP on the eve of the return to constitutional rule in 1992.  The party is still struggling to unite the Nkrumahist camp.  Even today, another lesser party, the People’s National Convention, also lays claim to Nkrumah’s heritage.

  The best that the party may hope for in the coming elections is to pick up a respectable number of parliamentary seats, particularly in the Northern and Volta Region.  This will definitely help the rebuilding and reassembling exercise and may well leave the party as the holder of the balance of power in a hung parliament.

  What is predictable, however, is that the CPP will be the key beneficiary of any probable decline of the NDC following the exit of President Rawlings, as it stands to reclaim its core support that constituted the bedrock of the PNDC regime.

  The Reform Party

  The Reform Party is essentially a Reject Bloc within the NDC.  It was created by a group of so-called grassroots cadres of the PNDC regime in the course of the intra-NDC struggles to anoint a successor to the outgoing President Rawlings.  Its leader, Augustus Tanoh, was rumoured to have been earmarked as Rawlings’s successor.  Annoyed that the exigencies of big-money politics had pushed them (the spade workers of the NDC architecture) to the fringes, they quit the party en bloc, angrily accusing ‘the tribal cabals’ that had coalesced within the party of infesting the party with corruption and corridor intrigues.  While the party may pick up votes from disgruntled and disenchanted NDC supporters, its national appeal remains suspect.  Many have accused the leadership of the RP of heading the structures that perpetrated gross violations of human rights – the Committees for the Defence of the Revolution.  Others see them as key Beneficiaries of cronyism within the NDC in the course of the ERP.

  The key impact of the RP in the elections will be their role as spoilers to the NDC.  Already, members of the Party have allegedly been exposing NDC election-rigging techniques to the opposition and revealing the extent of corruption within the party.  It is doubtful that the RP will last in its present form, raising the likelihood that it would merge with the CPP in the future.

  The Parliamentary Elections

  If the presidentials are too close to call, the concurrent parliamentary elections are even more so.  For parties, such as the CPP and RP, gains in the legislative elections are the surest base from which they can consolidate.  Ghana is likely to see tactical balloting pacts among the opposition in a bid to maximise opposition representation in parliament.  From all indications, a parliament where no single party commands a clear majority will be the outcome.  Such a scenario promises few advantages but could cripple democratic consolidation.  The lack of a clear majority for any party reduces the threat of constitutional dictatorship and helps build the culture of consensus.  However, a hung parliament may create a gridlock situation and block the passing of vital legislation, and legislative paralysis is not the best option for a society emerging from the shadows of long autocratic rule.

  VII.           Looking Beyond the Elections

 

The December 7 elections in Ghana are the most significant political development in Ghana for 21 years, and for a simple reason: President Jerry John Rawlings.  Though Ghana has held two multi-party elections since 1992, Ghanaians still associate the rule in Ghana with the military.  The exit of Rawlings therefore constitutes a paradigm shift in this respect.  The prospects for consolidation in the democratisation process hinge on the outcome, and the reactions of winners and losers, to the outcome.  It is therefore surprising that, given the turmoil in the West African sub-region, the international community has exhibited a low-key attitude to the exercise.

  Reconciliation and Justice

  In spite of the progress made in Ghana in the fields of consensus building and keeping the peace, many unresolved issues remain.  Top of the list is the prevailing attitude in society towards the issues of reconciliation and justice.  As pointed out, the modest achievements in Ghana have come at a high price.  Massive human right abuses, probably the worst in the country’s history, impunity and corruption occurred under the leadership of Flt. Lt. (Rtd.) Rawlings, his wife – Nana Konadu Rawlings- and several other PNDC apparatchiks past and present, such as Capt. (Rtd.) Kojo Tsikata, a cousin to the President and the architect of Ghana’s monstrous security apparatus.  While a section of the community is struggling to forgive, the other half is bent on revenge.

  Even in the event of an opposition victory, certain pertinent questions need to be posed.  Is it possible to opt for justice over reconciliation in the immediate aftermath of the elections?  What would be the attitude of the targets of any inquisition in the situation, where the accused still mans the security apparatus?

  It behoves on the international community, civil society within Ghana and all the political parties to impress upon the society the need to temper justice with the overriding concern for consensus building and sustainable peace.  It is most important that all contesting parties and individuals, as well as their supporters, play by the rules.  Defeat may be bitter, but the losers must accept the verdict of the electorate, once a general consensus emerges on the fairness and transparency of the process.  The authorities responsible for the conduct of the elections need to act with urgency in releasing results and handling any possible complaints.  For the parties, duty demands that they make the quickest possible transition from the pre-election bitterness and animosity to post-election co-operation among opposing parties with the sole purpose of making the democratic experiment work.  As the parties face the electorate, they should remember that incompetence on the part of the ruling party and the ‘oppose-anything’ mentality of the opposition contributed to the failure of the of the democratic experiments of 1969 and 1979.  It would be desirable, therefore, if all political parties gave serious thought to a movement towards post-Election Unity Government. 

  Once the co-operation is achieved, the two most pressing items on the agenda of any new dispensation should be economic stabilisation and democratic consolidation.

    Economic Stability

  For there to be any chance of consolidating the democratic process, it is imperative that the new regime halts economic decline, stabilises the free-falling Cedi and strengthens policies aimed at weeding out corruption.

  Democratic Consolidation

  There will also be the need to take immediate steps to strengthen democratic governance and the rule of law through constitutional reform.  It would be counter-productive to start the constitutional reform process by attacking such controversial clauses as the indemnity clauses.  However, it would be necessary to examine the Constitution with the view to further opening up democratic space.  Among areas of primary concern should be the:

Ø      Consolidation of democratic institutions by further strengthening the independence and responsibility of state bodies and the media.

Ø      Reform of oppressive security structures

Ø      Introducing democratic civilian control over the army and other security forces.

Ø      Operationalisation of the separation of powers.

Ø      Strengthening local government by freeing District Assemblies from regime control.

  Finally, for reasons related to globalisation and its impact on peripheral states, no durable economic stability nor democratic consolidation is possible without contextualising these processes within the framework of regional integration. 

  The International Community

  The lack of sustainable international support by the affluent states of the world and the draconian conditionalities that the international financial institutions place on assistance to Third World countries willing to embark on deep socioeconomic transformations are a part of the reason for the implosion of conflicts.  It is hoped that the international community shall not wait till Ghana joins the instability cycle before it starts scrambling to resolve preventable conflicts.  If there is a best time to be flexible with assistance and support democratic consolidation in Ghana, the time is now

[1] The name by which Ghana was known before independence
[
2] A. Asamoa, Socio-Economic Development Strategies of Independent African Countries: The Ghanaian Experience, Ghana University Press, 1996, p.99.

[3] Z. Yeebo, Ghana: The Struggle for People’s Power,Villiers Publications Ltd., 1991, p.255
[4] Ibid., pp. 240-250

Bibliography:

  Asamoa, Ansa              Socioeconomic Development Strategies of Independent African Countries: The Ghanaian Experience. Accra: Ghana Universities Press, 1996.

  Baah-Nuakoh, A. Studies on the Ghanaian Economy Vol. 1: The Pre- ‘Revolutionary’ Years. Accra: Ghana Universities Press, 1997.

  Frimpong-Ansah, J.H. The Vampire State in Africa: The Political Economy of Decline in Ghana. London: James Currey, 1991.

  Yeebo, Zaya                 Ghana: The Struggle for Popular Power. London: New Beacon Books, 1991.

  Ninsin, Kwame A (ed.) Ghana: Transition to Democracy. Dakar: CODESRIA, 1998.

  Ghana’s Political Transition 1990-1993: Selected Documents. Accra: Freedom Publications, 1996.

  Ofori-Atta, Jones ‘Financing the 1997 Budget’. Occasional Papers No 14. Accra: Institute of Economic Affairs, 1997.

  Prempeh, H. Kwasi ‘Toward Judicial Independence and Accountability in an Emerging Democracy’ Occasional Papers No. 11. Accra: Institute of Economic Affairs, 1997.

  EIU Country Profile: Ghana. London: The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2000.

  EIU Country Report: Ghana. London: The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2000.

  Development in Freedom: Agenda for Positive Change, Manifesto of the New Patriotic Party Accra, May 2000.

  Ghana: Spreading The Benefits of Development, National Democratic Congress 2000 Manifesto. Accra: NDC, 2000.

‘End of An Era’, in Business in Africa, March 2000, pp.22-29.

 
‘Towards December 7 polling day’ in West Africa, 18th – 24th September 2000, pp.9-11.

‘The economy in distress’ in ‘West Africa’ 7th – 13th August 2000, pp.12-14.

 

 

 


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